Friday, August 04, 2006

Lisa's Hurricane Predictions

When I first heard about Chris way back when he was an infant sprung from the loins of the eastern Atlantic, but now # 3 on this year's Tropical Trouble Hit Parade, my gut immediately told me that we would not have to worry about him. Why? Well, as I said, part of it is my gut. The other reason is because he only has one syllable in his name. It just doesn't pack a punch.

If you look back at the records, there have only been four storms with a one-syllable name to attain anything beyond Category 2 when they made landfall in the U.S. The first was Hurricane King back in 1950. He was the third storm on record that was given a name and I suppose he had something to live up to. Never mind that his predecessor, Hurricane Easy made landfall as a Cat 3 despite its name. Easy. Two syllables. The other monosyllabic Cat 3 storms were Fran, Bret and Jeanne. Now I don't know about the girls, but I'd never have pegged a storm named Bret to be of any consequence. And, in fact, despite being a Cat 3, he caused so little damage that his name wasn't even retired. He'll show up again in 2011.

Now, I heard something else while at the salon today. According to one of the same chatty pair of women referenced in today's other post, the Farmer's Almanac predicted two major hurricanes for the Gulf last year, one of them within days of when You Know Who struck. The women were impressed. The Farmer's Almanac also has an article explaining how to predict weather using a pig spleen.

As for the remainder of this season, NOAA predicts that we'll name 13-16 storms this season, with 10 of those becoming hurricanes and 4-6 of those hitting Category 3 or higher. So, using my Syllable + Gut Theory, and the remaining storm names, here's my prediction:
  • Ernesto-hmmm...I used to work with a guy named Ernesto...watch out for this one.
  • Florence- there's something about her...she sounds like someone's spinster aunt, but I think she may have a stiletto on her lap, under the afghan she's knitting.
  • Helene and Oscar might give us some pause, and may even come close, real close to dangerous, but maybe not Cat 3 (which is why they're not bolded and not as red.)
  • Isaac Nadine Rafael have real potential.
  • And if there's going to be a one syllable killer, it's going to be Joyce.

That's my prediction. I figure I have as much chance of being right as if I'd used a pig spleen.

18 Comments:

Blogger Richard said...

Let me warn you now, I think Joyce has the potential of being a powerfully psychotic poseidon, Joyce is my mothers name. Or perhap it will be a tempest the will cause alot of... guilt.

3:05 AM  
Blogger LisaPal said...

Oy veh! A little guilt we don't need. Maybe a little chicken soup...

Actually, I have an Aunt Joyce. She's married to my Uncle Camille. The Gulf Coast still bears his scars, and knowing Aunt Joyce, there's damage potential a-plenty in anything bearing her name.

9:58 AM  
Blogger Loki said...

How about Hurricane James Joyce? It won't do much physical damage, but it will confuse the hell out of most people....

Portrait of the Artist as a Tropical Storm?

12:51 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

I think we maqy have developed a whole new genre of literature to explore. What would be the storm wake causeed by topical storm Truman Capote, or perhaps tsunami storm Amy Tan.

1:47 PM  
Anonymous Karen said...

The Spleen Forecast is much much better than the Horses Ass projections that have been used in the past

4:45 PM  
Blogger LisaPal said...

Boy, Loki, you're right about that. And confusion is one more thing we need no more of. (BTW, you've been mighty prolific lately! Yeah!)

Richard, authors I'm okay with. But lets keep the characters out of the plan. I don't want a Hurricane Hannibal. And lets never name storms after historical figures. Sure, we may have a Ghandi, but I don't want any Hurricane Stalins, Attilas, Hitlers, etc.

Oh, Karen! You better watch your back now. You weren't suppsoed to reveal the secret forcast method that's been used all these years.

6:53 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

BTW, I've been meaning to give you this link for a long while. http://www.movingtonewzealand.net/

3:04 AM  
Anonymous Sophmom said...

Really funny comments. I'm already scared of Joyce. Lisa, do you really have an Aunt Joyce married to Uncle Camille?

Floyd kicked Wilmington, NC's ass in '99. Lots of consonants for just one syllable. Only a Cat 2 at landfall but he made a royal mess of Eastern NC and caused billions in damage, mostly from fresh-water flooding, killing 57 (plus one in the Bahamas).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999floyd.html

10:37 AM  
Blogger LisaPal said...

Richard, what a fantastic link. The author seems to have similar motivations as mine and she may save me a lot of time and money by keeping a chronicle of what she learns. I am eternally grateful.

(And for anyone who noticed the subject of that link, I don't have plans of leaving New Orleans any time soon. However, given the path that our federal government has taken, staying here for the duration seems unlikely. I'll be setting up my Micro-nation and New Orleans Cultural Preserve in the subtropical climate of the northern North Island. Anyone interested in joining me? Seriously.)

Sophmom, Floyd wss indeed a badass Cat 2. It's probably a good idea to remember that the Cat 2s can be pretty wicked on their own. Even Cindy, as a brief Cat 1, did some impressive damage.

And yes, my mother's brother is named Camille and his wife is named Joyce. Really. You can ask my big sister, though I'm not sure if she's going to revisit her blog now that she's back home from the trip that inspried it.

11:53 AM  
Anonymous Sophmom said...

Okay, that's it. Joyce is one to watch. I guess they're all one to watch. I mentioned Floyd for just those reasons. He was a rainmaker, and it seems to me that's one of NOLA's particular vulnerabilities at this time.

NZ seems very beautiful but quite far away. Perhaps you can find some spot that might allow an easier visit to the old home place?

12:35 PM  
Blogger Slimbolala said...

Mmm, pig spleen! Also makes damn fine eatin'.

3:25 PM  
Blogger Schroeder said...

And after you do the forecast, you can make sausage. Spleen sausage! Just like momma made it ... Ee-Yum!

3:45 PM  
Blogger Zihuatanejo said...

Nice Blogging,

Unless that was you guys already there I urge you to take part in the discussions at this community. It is very popular, especially with the New Orleanians of all stripes. It also a great place to poll the community with a quick questions and get tons of feedback.

http://community.livejournal.com/neworleans

My belief is that to get real transparency in our government and planning process we need to get the young folks involved and up to speed on the new paradigms. Teaching only civics in school and not smart growth and new urbanism concepts is like teaching our kids to count to ten without teaching them arithmetic, algebra and calculus and then expecting them to make it in this world.

Help us get those concepts out there! Create an account on live journal and help build a community, an educated community.

Thanks,

12:30 PM  
Blogger Zihuatanejo said...

that link should be:

New Orleans

12:32 PM  
Blogger LisaPal said...

Thanks. I have the link in my sidebar under "New Orleans Info."

9:34 PM  
Blogger oyster said...

Lisa please contact anyone at Rising Tide immediately-- we desperately need the Paypal info so we can promote the site!

3:13 PM  
Blogger oyster said...

The pig spleen is in the shape of those head statues on Easter Island.

7:14 PM  
Blogger Dangle 24-7 said...

Off the subject but of great importance…..Clayton James Cubitt http://operationeden.blogspot.com/2006/08/katrina-every-day.html will be here over the next week making portraits of survivors for use in public service announcements highlighting the need to reach out for help when it all gets to be too much. Anyone who would like to participate, contact: travelingmermaid@gmail.com

12:10 PM  

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